"THE issue"

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Duncan	06-Nov-08, 05:47 AM (GMT)
"THE issue"
Admission of weakness that cost McCain dear By Andrew Ward in Phoenix Published: November 6 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 6 2008 02:00 History is likely to conclude that John McCain lost the 2008 presidential race not on polling day, but seven weeks earlier, on the morning that Wall Street was thrown into panic by the collapse of Lehman Brothers. While the markets were nose-diving, the Republican was addressing a rally in Jacksonville, Florida. "The fundamentals of the economy are sound," he told the crowd. "But these are very, very difficult times and, I promise you, we will never put America in this position again. We will clean up Wall Street. We will reform Washington." It was a reasonable, even responsible, thing to say - reassuring voters that, while the markets were tanking, the economy was not about to disintegrate. Politically, however, the remark was disastrous. For the next two months, Democrats pilloried Mr McCain as out of touch for talking up the economy while people suffered. Before the crisis struck, Mr McCain had opened a narrow opinion poll lead for the first time in months. But Barack Obama regained his advantage as Wall Street reeled, and he never again let it slip. Mr McCain tried to regain the initiative by theatrically suspending his campaign to enter negotiations over the $700bn financial sector bail-out. But his intervention failed to break the deadlock. He ended up looking impulsive and ineffective. The episode brought longstanding questions about Mr McCain's temperament to the fore, allowing Democrats plausibly to cast their candidate as the safest choice, despite his opponent's greater experience. There was one other key moment that helped cost Mr McCain the election but was little noticed at the time. Late last year, he gave an interview in which he conceded that "the issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should". It was a candid remark in keeping with his "straight talk" reputation, but it cost him heavily later. Without that admission, there was little reason for voters to view Mr McCain as ill-qualified to handle the economy. There was even a case to be made that his six years of experience on the Senate commerce committee gave him more economic experience than his opponent. Instead, the Democrats were able to spend 10 months highlighting Mr McCain's self-acknowledged ignorance on what became the most important campaign issue. The remark came when he was still expecting to run a campaign focused on national security - his strongest issue. But progress in Iraq and the decline in US casualties pushed the war off the front pages, undermining his efforts to define the election as a choice between victory and surrender in Iraq. Arguably Mr McCain's biggest obstacle was his association with George W. Bush, the outgoing Republican president, at a time when opinion polls showed that up to 80 per cent of Americans thought the country was heading in the wrong direction. He also faced a huge financial disadvantage in a year of record fundraising by Mr Obama - a disparity worsened by his opponent's decision to renege on an earlier commitment to accept spending limits under the public finance system. The Republican struggled to find a consistent message - at times trying to reignite the poisonous "culture wars" of the 2004 election; at others attempting to appeal to independents with his "maverick" brand. His high-risk choice of Sarah Palin as running-mate backfired, as her success in firing up conservatives failed to compensate for her inability to woo swing voters. Critics say Mr McCain was ill-served by Steve Schmidt, his chief strategist, and other Bush-Cheney veterans who encouraged negative attacks. The candidate stuck to his word not to exploit the racially divisive affair arouind Jeremiah Wright, Mr Obama's former pastor, but authorised other smears. Mark Salter, Mr McCain's closest aide, says the senator has no regrets. "We fought our way through the most challenging environment in my lifetime. And it was just one damn thing after another ," he said on the eve of polling. "Win or lose, he ought to be very proud." Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
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Duncan	06-Nov-08, 08:06 AM (GMT)
1. "if you have any experience of Lambeth, the washing machine story shall vibrate"
http://prudentinvestor.blogspot.com/2008/11/world-looks-forward-to-new-us-president.html \ \ \ http://www.macupdate.com/info.php/id/11582 \ \ \ Mr Obama needs to change US economic policy quickly John Redwood's Diary 06/11/2008 07:18 John Redwood Blog Comments Wall Street slumped by more than 5% on the back of Mr Obama’s victory. The morning after the great result, reality set in. We need change in policy. We need the right sort of change. Changing to a more protectionist stance would be damaging. Markets are now hoping there is one breath of life and hope left in the outgoing Bush Administration. They are looking to the incumbent to chair a successful G20 on November 15th, and to bring together a trade deal. Mr Obama’s rhetoric in this area has scared them. Changing from the state borrowing too much to the state borrowing even more would also be unhelpful. Mr Obama seeks a targeted stimulus, but it will all have to be borrowed, on top of the huge borrowings the Bush regime has inaugurated to cover the expenditure on the banks, mortgage companies and AIG. So what change do we need? We need a government which understands you cannot solve a private sector debt crisis by turning it into a public sector debt crisis. We need a government which ditches the Bush/Paulson plan. It is too expensive for the taxpayer, and not big enough to solve the banking problem. We need an Administration which seeks to return nationalised financial companies to the private sector, whilst supplying enough liquidity and offering sufficient transitional guarantees to maintain confidence in the system. Freed of the burden of carrying the financial sector with state equity and subsidy, then the President could cut taxes on the lower paid, to provide a needed stimulus to consumption. We are going to need more jobs worldwide. They have to come from individuals wanting to buy more goods and services. At the moment US families cannot afford them, as they are too much in debt, and new debt is too scarce to come by. If the US state could cut its own appetite for debt, it could leave US taxpayers with more of their own money, which would start to arrest the decline. My worry about Mr Obama is not that he represents change, but that he will not implement major changes quickly enough. It is tough on him because he inherits a mess. It is now his mess, and the sooner he turns up at economic meetings and starts to assert himself the better. There is no time for partying and choosing the curtains. The very financial foundations of the house are being questioned, so it’s time for change, time to get rebuilding. He should also quietly dump his idea of escalating the war in Afghanistan. The US needs to conserve her military strength, and concentrate on rebuilding her economic strength. \ \ \ Wellington The Great Duke and others Jane Wellesley Weidenfeld, 369pp, £20, JAMES DELINGPOLEWEDNESDAY, 5TH NOVEMBER 2008 Wellington, by Jane Wellesley There can never be too many biographies of the Duke of Wellington because, like Churchill’s and Nelson’s, his career path is so extraordinary, uplifting, chequered and involving that it reads more like (slightly overwrought) fiction than fact. The first thing you’d give your mildly implausible hero if you were a novelist or Hollywood screenwriter would be a miserable childhood, a sensitive nature and a sense of burning grievance. That way, the audience would like him, identify with him, and feel all the more happy when he triumphed over adversity. So it was with young Arthur Wellesley. His cold-hearted mother, Anne, dismissed him with a ‘he’s food for powder and nothing else’; he was given to tears and playing sweetly on the violin; and when he sought the hand of pretty Kitty Pakenham, he was repeatedly rebuffed by her smarter family, who saw little advantage in an alliance with a penniless cavalryman with no obvious prospects. This is the point when you’d shift a gear and have your hero do a Prince Hal, putting aside youthful fecklessness in order to achieve his true destiny. Wellesley does this job perfectly when he burns his beloved violin — his Rosebud, you might say — starts excelling at his French equestrian school, studies hard, and begins his rapid ascent through the military. Of course, a certain degree of luck has to be involved: avoiding a posting to the West Indies, where he would surely have died of fever; ending up in India at just the right time. But now we must also get the first signs of awakening genius — coolheadedness and quick tactical thinking at his first engagement, a skirmish in Holland; surprise victory against seemingly overwhelming odds at Plassey; then, of course, his brilliantly conducted cat and mouse game with the numerically superior French — not to mention the grisly Whigs back home who would happily — in the Peninsular War — have surrendered Britain to the Napoleonic empire so long as they got to keep their estates . \ \ \ Real Life MELISSA KITEWEDNESDAY, 5TH NOVEMBER 2008 Money laundering With a sense of weary inevitability, I discover that it is not possible to have a washing machine delivered in my street without paying £100 in washing machine delivery protection money to Brixton town hall. Yes, indeed. I turned into my street the other day to find a lorry unloading outside my neighbour’s house in what ought to have been a boring, everyday scene of law-abiding folk going about their domestic business. That’s nice, I thought. My neighbour’s getting a new Zanussi. And I drove down an interconnecting road to get round the lorry thinking nothing awry. Until I heard the shouting. And then it hit me. A lorry unloading a washing machine is not a problem for me, or indeed any other citizen of planet earth because my street is in the middle of a conservation estate and leads nowhere. But it’s a problem for Lambeth council. Sorry, did I say problem? I meant to say opportunity to embezzle money. As if by magic the parking attendant appeared on his little moped. Soon he and the delivery man were locked in mortal combat, the yellow package of doom tucked beneath the windscreen wipers, the driver shouting about how the job had now cost him more money than he would earn from it, my neighbour promising through teary gulps that she would pay the charge. So, I hereby enclose a transcript of another of my phonecalls with Lambeth council, which I hope to publish one day in a compendium volume entitled Conversations With People Who Think They Are God: ‘Hello, I’d like to find out how to get a washing machine delivered to my house without incurring a £60 parking ticket for double parking, please.’ ‘If you are a resident in a controlled zone you can offer them one of your visitor permits.’ ‘But there’s no space to park in the bays. They’re always full.’ ‘We’ve got no power over that.’ ‘So how do I get a washing machine delivered?’ ‘You could suspend the bay. It’s £40 to do that; oh, and there’s an administration charge of £60, so actually it’s a minimum of £100.’ ‘That’s a lot of money, isn’t it? That doubles the price of the washing machine.’ ‘Yes. If it’s delivery of a household item it really isn’t worth it. Did you buy the washing machine from a reputable company?’ ‘What difference does that make?’ ‘The only other option I could actually suggest, if you know of anyone who parks in the immediate area you could have a word with them to move their vehicles when the delivery comes.’ ‘But they’re not in. The bays are full because people go to work leaving their cars at home for reasons I’m sure you support. Even if they were in I would need to locate the owners of about five cars to make enough space for a lorry. And where would those cars park in the mean time?’ Silence. ‘You see another “option” that occurs to me is that Lambeth council could not ticket delivery lorries as they unload things like washing machines to people’s houses.’ ‘That would be a good idea.’ ‘Well, can you suggest it? Can you make it happen?’ ‘I’m not in a position to implement change.’ ‘Is there anyone there who is?’ ‘No. You would have to put it in writing.’ ‘OK. I will. Just tell me who to. Because it is very unfair, don’t you think?’ ‘If the lorry’s double parked it stops other road users.’ ‘Well, it’s interesting you say that, because I was stuck behind a delivery lorry myself and I didn’t mind at all.’ ‘Yeah but it could stop the emergency services.’ ‘Couldn’t they just ask the lorry to move?’ ‘With the emergency services it might be a matter of a few vital seconds.’ ‘That is a good point. You’ve got me there. I could end up killing someone with my heartless washing machine delivery.’ ‘I’ve found the name of someone you can write to. He’s called Nigel. He’s head of the sustainability team.’ ‘What does sustainability mean?’ ‘In regards to regeneration, it’s all about preserving resources. He would encourage people to use public transport and cycling.’ ‘Why would he help me?’ ‘What do you mean?’ (She’s getting a bit shouty and irritable now.) ‘I’m just not sure why he would want to help me get this washing machine unloading tax lifted. His system seems to work quite well in terms of preserving resources.’ ‘He will want to help you because he’s a councillor.’ Now she’s speaking with playschool emphasis and a chilling tone which reminds me that my call is being recorded and may be used for ‘training’ purposes. I decide I’d better do what I’m told. I’ve left a message on Nigel’s answerphone, so fingers crossed, eh. The Spectator, 22 Old Queen Street, London, SW1H 9HP. All Articles and Content Copyright ©2007 by The Spectator (1828) Ltd. All Rights Reserved \ \ \
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Duncan	06-Nov-08, 08:44 AM (GMT)
2. "If you want a friend anywhere, get a dog: you won't make friends if you don't have a dog"
From The Times November 6, 2008 Barack Obama: All the Presidents' dogs Barack Obama has promised his daughters a new puppy. It will be the latest in a long line of White House pooches Damian Whitworth If you want a friend in Washington,” Harry Truman said, “get a dog.” He was commenting on what a brutal, backbiting, primordial swamp the capital is. But the sentence could just as well be taken to mean: you won't make friends if you don't have a dog. It should come as no surprise that in his acceptance speech Barack Obama told his daughters Malia, 10, and Sasha, 7: “I love you both more than you can imagine. And you have earned the new puppy that's coming with us.” This was not just a sweet gesture to his daughters: it was a statement of intent. He may have won a landslide with a message of change, but he needed to reassure voters that one of the White House traditions that they hold most dear, whether the occupant is a Republican or a Democrat, would be upheld. More than half of America's 43 presidents have owned dogs and in recent years a canine friend has meant more than just a way of softening a Commander-in-Chief's image. It has become an essential job requirement. We may love our pets in Britain but they rarely play much of a role in politics. Humphrey the Downing Street cat entered the nation's consciousness only when John Major lost him and again when Cherie Blair had to deny reports that he was removed from No 10 because she disliked the animal. It is hard to imagine any other country in which a newly elected leader would announce as his first executive decision the appointment of a First Pooch. White House dogs are involved in diplomacy, political crisis management, even in helping to hold their owners' precarious marriages together. Then they write books. 'Change has come' - Obama wins in landslide Sweeping victory for America's first black president is greeted by tumultuous scenes Watch our video Analysis: Barack Obama's victory is head-spinning stuff Full video and text: Barack Obama's victory speech Early US Election exit polls give hope to Barack Obama Michelle Obama: a new type of First Lady For Carla Bruni the game is finally up. In Michelle Obama she has truly met her match - a First Lady like none before BACKGROUND Bush - 'We should all be proud of Obama' The challenge that greets Obama Full video and text: Obama's victory speech Voters honour Martin Luther King's dream MULTIMEDIA Team Obama - who are they? Bonjour 'Barack' MULTIMEDIA Pictures: All the presidents' dogs MULTIMEDIA Blog: Obama - which puppy should he buy? George Washington found time between winning the Revolutionary War and founding the nation to own ten hounds: Taster, Cloe, Tipler, Forester, Captain, Lady Rover, Vulcan, Sweetlips, Madame Moose and Searcher. Theodore Roosevelt, who worked hard on his macho image, kept a pitbull, Pete, that nearly provoked a diplomatic incident when it attacked the French Ambassador, tearing the seat out of his trousers. Pete was banished to Roosevelt's home on Long Island. His removal, however, did not leave Roosevelt lonely. The President liked keeping animals almost as much as he enjoyed killing them and brought a menagerie to the White House that included a bear, a badger, a macaw, a lizard, a hyena, snakes, guinea-pigs, a hen, a rooster with one leg, a rabbit, three ponies and a barn owl. Subsequent presidents returned the focus to less exotic, four-pawed pets. Franklin D. Roosevelt's Scottie, called Fala, became so much part of his avuncular image that it received sacks of fanmail, was buried alongside his master and is immortalised in the memorial to FDR on the National Mall. Roosevelt responded to a false story that Fala had been left behind on a trip to the Aleutian Islands and a destroyer had been sent to pick him up, with a speech in which he said: “His Scotch soul was furious. He has not been the same dog since. I am accustomed to hearing malicious falsehoods about myself...But I think I have a right to resent, to object to, libellous statements about my dog.” Fala supposedly bonded with Rufus, Winston Churchill's poodle, in the secret confines of a cruiser off Newfoundland in 1941. The Cold War was thawed by a degree or two when Nikita Khrushchev gave Pushinka, a mongrel descended from Russian dogs sent into space, to President Kennedy's daughter, Caroline. A litter of puppies was born in the White House. The family's other dogs included Charlie, a Welsh terrier. Lyndon Johnson caused uproar when he was pictured picking up his beagles, Him and Her, by their ears. Richard Nixon proved master of using his cocker spaniel, Checkers, to get out of trouble. When he was Eisenhower's vice-president he was accused of pocketing money from supporters and for accepting the dog as a gift. He went on television to deny the accusations, held up a picture of the dog, said his kids loved the animal and “regardless of what they say about it, we're gonna keep it”. Viewers lapped it up and the crisis was defused. His successor, Gerald Ford, had a more practical use for Liberty, his golden retriever, whistling for her to come and break up boring meetings. The Bush political dynasty is matched by that of their dogs. George Bush Sr had an English springer spaniel, Millie. Millie's Book: As Dictated to Barbara Bush, described a day in the life of the President, which burnished his profile and cemented his wife's status as the nation's grandmother. Spot, one of Millie's puppies born in the White House, returned with George W. and died there in 2004. The outgoing President now has two Scottish terriers, Barney and Miss Beasley. However low his opinion poll ratings, the dogs are always ready to come bounding enthusiastically across the lawn to greet him. His predecessor relied even more heavily on a dog pal in times of trouble. The Clintons arrived at the White House with their cat Sox and later Clinton was given Buddy, a labrador. Dear Sox, Dear Buddy, a collection of letters sent to the pets sold well, but the two didn't get along. Like most things about the Clintons, their cat attracted controversy. The Clintons had her declawed to save the antique furniture, provoking uproar among animal welfare groups. Then when they left office it was announced that it was off to live with Bill's secretary, Betty Currie, prompting unfair accusations that Hillary didn't care for the moggie and had just used it to soften her own image (this was a little unfair given that Sox had been the family pet back in Arkansas). Buddy was a faithful and helpful presence to his master. During the Monica Lewinsky scandal it appeared to be the only member of Bill's family that was pleased to see the President. Perhaps this is too cynical, but it was a useful image for Clinton to be seen serving his time in the doghouse with the dog, before his spouse forgave him. After he left office Buddy was accidentally killed near the family home in Chappaqua, New York, when a vehicle ran over it. Bill was said to be heartbroken. One thing Obama will need to watch out for is competition for the job of top dog. Dick Cheney once dressed his labradors, Jackson and Dave, as Darth Vader and Superman for a Hallowe'en party but, like their owner, they mostly stayed in the shadows. Joe Biden, however, has said that his wife had promised him a “big dog” if he got elected. Not too big, Mr Vice President-elect. Expect to hear a great deal more about the First Dog, probably rather more than you will about the two girls for whom it is bought. Then one day there will be a section devoted to it in the Presidential Pet Museum. Yes, of course there's a Presidential Pet Museum. Where else would you find a portrait of Lucky, President Reagan's Bouvier des Flandres, made from its own hair? A dog isn't just for one term, Mr Obama, it's for life As leader of the world superpower, choosing a dog probably does not rate alongside forging relations in the Middle East or reducing America's national debt, yet the breed of the Obamas' new canine companion could be more of a headache for the President-elect than he realises. Larger dogs may be more child-friendly but they often have a shorter lifespan and cost more to feed than smaller ones, which must be a consideration in economically blighted times. While a Jack Russell might be lively, it is also more likely to bite than any other breed. This could become diplomatically explosive should the Iranian Ambassador's attempt to pat the President's pooch be misinterpreted by the mutt as an act of war. And then there are allergies. For the Obamas, whose daughter Malia suffers from them, a breed with a short, predictable coat is crucial. Yet, hypoallergenic dogs, such as the American hairless terrier, are not the best-looking of breeds when it comes to those “impromptu” fur-frolicking photo calls. Lastly, there is the important issue of what your dog says about you. According to Beverley Cuddy, editor of Dogs Today, psychologists have found an inverse correlation between a man's masculinity and the size of his dog. A man who chooses a very large canine, such as a Great Dane, could signal a lack of confidence. This does not bode well for Jo Biden, who has already announced that he is going to choose a large breed. Surprisingly, the American Kennel Club has already polled its members on which breed should be the next White House dog basket incumbent and, after 42,000 votes, the poodle beat the soft-coated wheaten terrier by a dog's hair's breadth. Here at The Times, however, we have a few suggestions of our own: THE RODINGLEA SCRUFFY The brightest dog in town. A blend of bearded collie, border collie and English springer spaniel, this dog has been bred to be a canine genius and is so evolved that it can even speak 15 recognisable words. It could hold its own press conferences and even market its own top-selling books. Downside: danger of indiscretion and becoming a double agent in return for sausages. THE LABRADOR A favourite of British MPs and No1 dog in Britain. Docile, biddable, needs little grooming and would do wonders for the Special Relationship. Downside: a gun dog (how neocon!) that needs a lot of walking and could run to fat on too many banquet titbits. THE AUSTRALIAN SHEPHERD DOG A native to America and would be a novel breed for the White House. As a dog with a working past, it could be useful for herding the press corps. It is also loyal and protective. Downside: its name could be construed as unAmerican. THE PUGGLE A cross of the pug and the beagle. It looks like the pug of Hogarth pictures, is flat-coated and much favoured by the rich and famous. It can strut its stuff, so would cope with the cameras and, as it is blessed with the gentle nature of the beagle, would make a perfect presidential companion. Downside: could demand more attention than strictly needed. THE RESCUE DOG Would show that Obama is in touch with the people and that, just as anyone can become President, any canine can become First Dog. Could make rescue dogs fashionable. Downside: not knowing a dog's history can mean more work and having to have faith and trust in the future. Alexandra Blair HAVE YOUR SAY I think the Obama family would do well with a Papillion puppy! Papillion's are energetic, affectionate, kind, playful and utterly adorable. They love children and are great family pets! They adjust to your lifestyle quite well. Toy breeds are the best and easiest to maintain with busy family life! Elizabeth, Miami, USA
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Duncan	06-Nov-08, 09:02 AM (GMT)
3. "INTERNET users in Britain are more likely to fall victim to identity theft than their peers elsewhere in Europe and North America. In a recent survey of 6,000 online shoppers in six countries by PayPal and Ipsos Research, 14% of respondents in Britain said that they have had their identities stolen online, compared with only 3% in Germany. More than half of respondents said that they used personal dates and names as passwords, making it relatively easy for scammers to gain access to accounts. The French are particularly cavalier, with two-thirds using easily guessed passwords and over 80% divulging personal data, such as birthdays, on social-networking sites."
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Duncan	06-Nov-08, 09:09 AM (GMT)
4. "Money can't buy you happiness". But it does, you know"
Andy McNab's life after the SAS The secretive and dangerous work of the Special Air Service (SAS) has been brought to the attention of a wider public by bestselling author Andy McNab. He was the most highly decorated serving soldier in the British Army when he left in 1993. He now lives on a farm in Middlesex with his daughter and wife, Jenny By Sarah Ewing Last Updated: 6:35PM GMT 05 Nov 2008 Photo: Carlton Television HOW DID YOUR CHILDHOOD INFLUENCE YOUR ATTITUDE TO MONEY? It had a huge impact on me. I was found abandoned in a carrier bag outside Guy's Hospital in London in 1959, and was brought up by my foster parents, who later adopted me. They were decent working-class people, but money was always very tight, because they also adopted another boy and had their own young son. In the 1970s we relied on free school dinners and clothes vouchers. Money was always a concern. DOES BEING WELL OFF NOW MAKE YOU FEEL HAPPIER? No, not exactly. Many people believe the cliché "Money can't buy you happiness". But it does, you know. You don't have to worry about things, like my mum and dad did, and whether you've got enough money in the bank to cover bills. However, I don't travel first class out of principle – I go business class. I can't see the point of spending an extra four grand. DOES TALKING ABOUT PERSONAL WEALTH EMBARRASS YOU? No. I've spent a lot of time in New York and people there are the complete opposite of Brits, where there's almost an embarrassment about doing well for yourself and having money. In the early days when my writing career took off, there was a funny reaction amongst my friends; some were p****d off, some were happy for me. There was one incident with a friend, whom I'd known since we were 17 in youth training for the Army. He was now out, and was sadly in financial trouble and getting divorced, as is pretty common with ex-servicemen. His house was going to be repossessed, so I paid that off. He said, "I'll be able to pay you back in three years," and the week after I paid the debt I never saw him again. Money can destroy friendships because of jealousy. I can understand why some people who have come into money isolate themselves and only socialise with other similar people because they don't want to get ripped off by scroungers. ARE YOU MORE OF A SPENDER OR A SAVER? I used to be a spender, but I'm more of a saver now. These days, I don't think celebrities and a lot of people have got any concept of the value of money. They're after instant gratification, whether or not they need or can afford something. In my opinion, if the car works and you've got a house, everything is great. When my first two bestsellers, Bravo Two Zero and Immediate Action, came out, I went through a phase of splashing out. I paid off my parents' mortgage, got a couple of flash Porsches and an Aston Martin, but after five years of spending like a high-roller the allure had worn off. I've got a motorbike that's five years old – I don't feel the need to update it because it still works IS THERE ANYTHING YOU PARTICULARLY HATE ABOUT DEALING WITH MONEY? No, nothing at all. When you've got money you've got all the attachments like lawyers and stuff, but that's really part and parcel of being wealthy. I do feel a certain responsibility because whatever I'm working on is all is my life, my future stability, and I actually feel quite privileged to be making the money I do from something I love. WHAT'S THE BEST PURCHASE YOU MADE? A couple of years ago I bought a house in Portofino, Italy, which has been a brilliant speculation and it's so easy to get to. Buying houses is great because you live there, but it's also as an investment. But I definitely won't sell the Portofino property. I've also got my main house, a farm just outside London. I also invested in a private military company in Iraq that won the Queen's Award for enterprise in 2006. WHAT'S BEEN YOUR WORST BUY? I bought 60 acres of desert west of Tucson, Arizona, thinking the city would expand. It did – north and east. So a decade later, my plot is still sitting there, empty and costing me money – it's a nightmare. I've not been for about three years because normally I would go there out of principle and camp on it to justify still having it. DO YOU HAVE A MOST TREASURED POSSESSION? I've got a Breitling watch. I bought it while I was walking around one Sunday afternoon, just after Immediate Action came out in 1995. It's the most expensive watch I've ever had – it cost £1,200. I thought, "Oh I can afford to buy that now," so I did. How do you prefer to pay for things: cash, card or cheque? Credit card. I used to prefer cash or debit card because I could rein myself in more easily and not overspend. But I had a funny experience in PC World a few years ago. I wanted to get a laptop with service on a payment plan deal they were offering but they wouldn't give it to me because I didn't have a credit history. DO YOU HAVE A FINANCIAL ADVISER? Yeah, it's all part of the cost of having money. Every six months we sit down and I either cry or laugh. But I do feel a responsibility to understand how my money is being managed and how it's performing, otherwise how do you know if you're being told the truth? I do dabble in stocks and shares, but I'm quite conservative. Even though I play around a bit, I don't like taking big risks. DO YOU THINK PENSIONS ARE A GOOD IDEA? In general, yeah, I think so. My mum and dad haven't got one, purely because they didn't have enough money to have one. I will get an Army pension, but that will probably be tuppence. Brand McNab is my pension fund, so I've got to keep working. Andy McNab's new book, Brute Force (Bantam, £18.99), is out now
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Duncan	06-Nov-08, 01:40 PM (GMT)
5. "He attributed his long life to a moderate consumption of alcohol"
World War I veteran dies aged 108 Mr Lucas led the annual Anzac Day parade in his adopted town Obituary: Sydney Lucas One of the five remaining veterans of World War I has died at the age of 108, it has been announced. Sydney Maurice Lucas was born in Leicester on 21 September 1900. He was among the last batch of conscripts to be called up in 1918. The Armistice meant he escaped the horror of the trenches but went on to serve in World War II. He died on 4 November in his home town near Melbourne in Australia where he moved in 1928. He was just 17 when he was drafted into the Sherwood Foresters in August 1918. Better life He was trained in Derby and then Catterick in Yorkshire but when the war ended he was sent home before he had to leave for France. In 1928 he, like many other Britons, emigrated to Australia in search of a better life. In June 1940 he volunteered for the Australian army and was posted to a machine gun company. He sailed to Palestine where Australian forces were being prepared to travel to Greece which had been invaded by German and Italian troops. Anzac service But, he was again destined not to see active service after an attack of appendicitis prevented him travelling with his battalion which left without him in April 1941. He returned to Australia on board the liner Queen Mary, as part of an operation guarding Italian and German prisoners of war and was discharged from the army in November 1941, on the grounds of ill health. For many years he led the local Anzac Day parade in his home town on the Mornington Peninsula near Melbourne. He attributed his long life to a moderate consumption of alcohol.
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Duncan	06-Nov-08, 01:47 PM (GMT)
6. "astonishing"
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/ \ \ \ Couple put savings into property Print this page Last Modified: 06 Nov 2008 Source: PA News A wealthy couple have paid £3 million upfront for 11 luxury apartments because they have decided the money is safer in property than it is in the bank. The unnamed couple have bought the two-bedroom flats in the exclusive Harbourside development in Bristol, overlooking the historic Great Britain. Developer Crest Nicholson said the couple, who are from north Somerset, wanted to withdraw their money from the bank and invest in bricks and mortar as a safer option. Prices for the flats snapped up by them range from £239,950 for a two-bed on a lower floor of the development, to a penthouse priced at £399,950. The Crescent development comprises 268 apartments, 163 of which have been sold to buy-to-let investors. The deal is the largest purchase of flats by an individual investor although a firm has already bought 20 apartments. Average rental prices on the two-bedroom flats are around £1,100 a month. Letting out all 11 of the flats would yield the couple a return of £145,200 per year. Vicky Dudbridge of King Sturge, the selling agents for the development, said more investors who have their funds in banks around the world are losing confidence in the system and moving their money into the property market. She said: "We are increasingly seeing investors who want to get their money out of the banking system as quickly as possible. Although the property market is at a low, people have more confidence in it than the banks. We are almost 70% sold in The Crescent building here. From the middle of August to the end of October we had 27 sales. "The property market will take time to recover, but at the end of it investors will still have their property and they will have gained an income from renting the property out." Ed Osborn of The Bristol Residential Lettings Co, which handles much of the rental market at Harbourside, said: "The residential market is very good at Harbourside. We have rented out over 30 apartments there since September and are achieving £825pcm for one bedroom apartments and between £1,000 and £1,200pcm for two bedroom apartments. "The rental market remains strong and I am not surprised investors are moving their money into bricks and mortar at the moment as they will at least gain an income from their investment, which is more than can be guaranteed from the banks." \ \ \ http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2008-11-06_yields.php \ \ \ Big interest rate cuts in Britain and Europe Submitted by cpowell on 05:38AM ET Thursday, November 6, 2008. Section: Daily Dispatches By Ralph Boulton Reuters Thursday, November 6, 2008 http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE49N5VU20081106 LONDON -- Britain slashed borrowing costs by a surprising 1.5 percentage points on Thursday and the European Central Bank (ECB) also cut rates as part of concerted efforts to revive world commerce and ward off deep recession. The ECB met market expectations by reducing its interest rate by 0.5 percentage point, a move political leaders hope will limit any move into recession and curb job losses. The Bank of England, faced with a slumping housing market, a decline in manufacturing, and increased unemployment, astonished analysts by announcing a hefty 1.5 percentage point cut, the biggest since the Bank gained independence to set rates 11 years ago and a mark of the gravity of concern over the economy. Heavy U.S. job losses, a sharp decline in the world services sector and bleak company outlooks painted an increasingly dark picture this week. Matthew Sharratt, UK economist at Bank of America, echoed widespread sentiment in calling the British cut "astonishing." Jonathan Loynes of Capital Economics called it "spectacular." "There is still more to do," Loynes said. "At 3 percent, UK interest rates are still well above U.S. ones when economic conditions suggest they should be as low if not lower. ... Our view remains that UK rates will fall to 1 percent or below." Last month the Bank of England joined forces with the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank to make an emergency half-point cut in interest rates. Politicians in the 15-country euro zone hope a rate cut from the ECB, possibly half a point, will help stave off recession and limit unemployment. The ECB move took its benchmark rate to 3.25 percent. The 15-nation euro zone's economy, which had grown steadily since the bloc's creation in 1999, contracted by 0.2 percent in the second quarter this year and most economists expect further shrinkage in third quarter GDP figures on November 14. Rate cuts may be less effective than in the past. Banks infected by a collapse of confidence within the financial system are still wary of extending loans and are reluctant to pass cuts on to borrowers. But the sheer scale of Thursday's cut will put pressure on British banks to conform and back smaller businesses, some facing bankruptcy. The Swiss national bank cut its rates by 50 basis points. Markets looked to U.S. President-elect Barack Obama to name key members of an economic team that must tackle a crisis that originated in the U.S. housing market 15 months ago before enveloping the banking system and threatening the very foundations of the global market economy. "After the world rally on the day of the presidential election, investors have now shifted their focus to how fast, and how well the new administration will address the current economic issues," said Yoo Soo-min, analyst at Hyundai Securities. Toyota Motor Corp., the world's biggest automaker, slashed its annual operating profit forecast by more than half and its shares tumbled over 10 percent, making it the latest casualty in an industry hit hard by the slump. Goldman Sachs Group Inc was laying off 3,200 employees this week, according to sources familiar with the situation. European stocks and Britain's FTSE 100 index briefly pared losses after the British move before falling back again to trade around three percent down. U.S. crude oil lost 2 percent to $63.96 a barrel, against a record high above $147 set in July. The fall, reflecting expectations a global recession, will reduce inflationary pressure on national economies and ease rate cuts. Falling world oil prices and ebbing economic activity have effectively banished fears of inflation that dominated policy thinking only a year ago. Obama's landslide win on Tuesday, along with the Democrats' tighter grip on Congress, raised hopes of a speedier injection of billions of dollars to shore up the struggling economy. The first black U.S. president has to wait until January 20 to move into the White House. In the meantime, though, he must decide on a successor for Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, one of the architects of a $700 billion state rescue package inconceivable before the crisis broke. Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, and former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker are among those mooted for the Treasury post. Obama may announce his pick on Thursday. The slump is already encroaching on Main Street. World number two sporting goods maker Adidas stood by its 2008 forecasts, but retracted targets for next year, declaring that conditions were too difficult to predict. A Swedish central bank official said the shape of a Nordic aid package to crisis-hit Iceland had been decided. Norway said earlier this week it would provide Iceland with a 500 million euro ($643 million) loan to help the country rebuild an economy in tatters following the collapse of its biggest banks.
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Duncan	07-Nov-08, 04:38 AM (GMT)
7. "the world’s stock markets would present several ‘false dawns’ before we could finally declare victory against the bear market. Last week’s more upbeat tone was one such ‘false dawn’"
http://www.arpllp.com/core_files/The%20Absolute%20Return%20Letter%201108.pdf \ \ \ http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1083584/Businesswoman-beaten-carjackers-10-000-jewellery-luxury-BMW.html?ITO=1490 \ \ \ THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 06, 2008 ECB Will Print More Money at Cheaper Prices, Cuts Rates Taking advantage of lower commodity and energy prices while facing economic headwinds from a contraction in retail sales the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its key refinancing rate another 50 basis points to 3.25%, meeting market expectations. The deposit facility rate was brought down accordingly to 2.75% and the discount rate to 3.75%. In the UK the Bank of England cut its key interest rate a massive 150 basis points to 3% despite headline inflation of 5.2%. Alas, the moves did not help to calm capital markets. European stock exchanges barely came off their day's lows. Gold surged $20 to $760 while Federal Reserve Notes experienced a light boost after the ECB's announcement. The ECB decision reflects a continuation of the strategy to provide banks with all the liquidity needed and will comfort European policymakers who are fearful of a recession in 2009. The easy credit may accelerate inflation again, though. In his introductory statement ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet said first that inflation, now at 3.2%, is expected to continue on a slow downward path to the target rate of 2% in 2009. The outlook for price stability has improved further. Inflation rates are expected to continue to decline in the coming months, reaching a level in line with price stability during the course of 2009. The intensification and broadening of the financial market turmoil is likely to dampen global and euro area demand for a rather protracted period of time. In such an environment, taking into account the strong fall in commodity prices over recent months, price, cost and wage pressures in the euro area should also moderate. At the same time, the underlying pace of monetary expansion has remained strong but has continued to show further signs of deceleration. All in all, the information available and our current analysis indicate a further alleviation of upside risks to price stability at the policy-relevant medium-term horizon, even though they have not disappeared completely. He later retracted a bit, saying that a resurgence of commodity prices poses an upside risk to price expectations. Looking forward, recent sharp falls in commodity prices, as well as the ongoing weakening in demand, suggest that the annual HICP inflation rate will continue to decline in the coming months and reach a level in line with price stability during the course of 2009. Depending, in particular, on the future path of oil and other commodity prices, some even stronger downside movements in HICP inflation cannot be excluded around the middle of next year, particularly due to base effects. These movements would be short-lived and therefore not relevant from a monetary policy perspective. Looking through such volatility, however, upside risks to price stability at the policy-relevant horizon are alleviating. The remaining upside risks relate to an unexpected increase in commodity prices, as well as in indirect taxes and administered prices, and the emergence of broad-based second-round effects in price and wage-setting behaviour, particularly in economies where nominal wages are indexed to consumer prices. Robust growth in money supply, although decelerating, does not correlate to the economic slowdown, which could be longer than expected, said Trichet. The intensification and broadening of the financial market turmoil is likely to dampen global and euro area demand for a rather protracted period of time. Trichet mentioned however that outflows from money market funds wound up in overnight deposits due to sustaining strains in financial markets, creating shifts in the monetary base. The annual growth rates of broad money and credit aggregates, while still remaining strong, continued to decline in September. Taking the appropriate medium-term perspective, monetary data up to September confirm that upside risks to price stability are diminishing but that they have not disappeared completely. A closer examination of the money and credit data indicates that the recent intensification of financial tensions has already had an identifiable impact, particularly in the form of outflows from money market funds and greater inflows into overnight deposits. However, the full impact of investors’ uncertainty on their portfolio allocation behaviour is still to be seen in the coming months. Both portfolio shifts between non–monetary and monetary assets and shifts between different types of monetary assets can therefore not be ruled out in the period ahead. Hence, such effects will need to be taken into account when assessing monetary growth and its implications for price stability over the medium term. In plain language, expect more "asset" classes, especially Eurozone government bonds, to deflate overnight in the future when a panicky investing crowd will stampede to the exit. Widening yield spreads between German bunds and Italian and Spanish government bonds as well as Austria's retraction of a bond offering last week clearly signal that all is not well in the Eurozone financial markets. Read more about it at Ed Hugh's Eurowatch blog. Labels: ecb, euro, eurozone, interest rates, monetary inflation More on this topic (What's this?) Jim Rogers Says Massive inflation is Coming (Kirk's Market Thoughts, 10/26/08) LinkFest (World Beta - Engineering Targete..., 10/20/08) Misery Breaks Out (Financial Armageddon, 10/29/08) Read more on Inflation at Wikinvest by The Prudent Investor @ 16:20 \ \ \ "In order that all men might be taught to speak truth, it is necessary that all likewise should learn to hear it." Dr. Samuel Johnson (1709-1784) - Source: The Rambler, 1750-52 = "Every man who says frankly and fully what he thinks is so far doing a public service. We should be grateful to him for attacking most unsparingly our most cherished opinions." Sir Leslie Stephen - (1832-1904), literary essayist, author Source: The Suppression of Poisonous Opinions, 1883 = "Political correctness is really a subjective list put together by the few to rule the many -- a list of things one must think, say, or do. It affronts the right of the individual to establish his or her own beliefs." Mark Berley - Source: Argos, Spring 1998 = "There never was an idea stated that woke men out of their stupid indifference but its originator was spoken of as a crank." Oliver Wendell Holmes, Sr. (1809-1894) American Poet - Source: Over the Teacups, 1891 === Number Of Iraqis Slaughtered Since The U.S. Invaded Iraq "1,273,378" http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/iraq/iraqdeaths.html === Number of U.S. Military Personnel Sacrificed (Officially acknowledged) In America'sWar On Iraq 4,191 http://icasualties.org/oif/ The War And Occupation Of Iraq Costs $568,850,198,632 See the cost in your community http://nationalpriorities.org/index.php?option=com_wrapper&Itemid=182 === A Look Under the Hood at the (Potential) Obama Administration By Joshua Frank Barack Obama's administration will prove unlikely to alter the fundamental political machinery that has led us into war and economic turmoil. Below is a brief summary of Obama's potential choices for a few key roles in his administration. http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article21162.htm === The Last Ride on the Straight Talk Express By Mike Whitney McCain ran the dirtiest campaign in recent memory and his attempt cover it over with a few uplifting platitudes won't save his reputation from lasting damage. http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article21163.htm === At least 25 killed in Pakistan: Fifteen Taliban fighters have been killed in a Pakistani air raid in the northwest of the country, government officials say. A second attack occurred in Bajaur on Thursday, killing at least 10 people and wounding 45 more, a government official said. http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2008/11/2008116105041653879.html === Afghan clash leaves 17 "Taliban" dead in South: Afghan police forces eliminated at least 17 insurgents in Helmand province of southern Afghanistan in a clash with Taliban insurgents on Wednesday, said a police official on Thursday. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-11/06/content_10318906.htm === US raids kill another 10 Afghan civilians: Separate coalition operations have claimed ten civilian casualties in Afghanistan, a day after an air strike killed 40 in the south. http://www.presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=74486§ionid=351020403 === 11 killed in North Ossetia blast: Eleven people were killed by the blast in the southern Russian city of Vladikavkaz. North Ossetia borders Chechnya as well as Georgia's breakaway South Ossetia region, the focus of a war in August between Russia and Georgia. http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2008/11/2008116124115350881.html === Medvedev delivers chilling words on missile plans: Mr Medvedev, making his first state of the union address only hours after the victory of Barack Obama, used tough rhetoric, attacking the United States for its role in the war in Georgia, the financial crisis and accusing it of moving aggressively against Russia. http://tinyurl.com/63yvk6 === Russia's Iskander best answer to U.S. missiles in Europe - analyst: "The deployment of Iskander missile systems with a range of 500 km (310 miles) would allow Russia to target the entire territory of Poland and also parts of Germany and the Czech Republic," said Anatoly Tsyganok, head of the Moscow-based Military Forecast Center. http://en.rian.ru/russia/20081105/118140039.html === Blasts in Baghdad kill 6: A series of bomb blasts across Baghdad killed six people and injured more than 20 others Thursday, police said, in the fourth consecutive day of heightened violence in the Iraqi capital. http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/11/06/news/ML-Iraq.php === US responds to Iraqi proposals on American troops: A top Iraqi official said the U.S. accepted some proposals and rejected others, presumably an Iraqi demand for expanded legal control over U.S. soldiers. http://tinyurl.com/5nfnu3 === Romanian minister says 500 troops to leave Iraq: Romania's defense minister says the country's 501 peacekeepers in Iraq will all leave by the end of the year. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081106/ap_on_re_eu/eu_romania_iraq_troops === Bulgaria To Withdraw Soldiers From Iraq At Year-end : Bulgaria plans to withdraw its 155-strong military contingent in Iraq when its mandate expires at the end of this year, government officials said in newspaper interviews Thursday http://tinyurl.com/6lc4h7 === One militant killed, 3 wounded in Israeli airstrike on Gaza: - Israeli planes attacked a group of militants in the Gaza Strip on Thursday morning, leaving one dead and another three wounded, a local medical official said. http://en.rian.ru/world/20081106/118158661.html === Israel warns Obama against dialogue with Iran: Israel said today US president-elect Barack Obama's stated readiness to talk to Iran could be seen in the Middle East as a sign of weakness in efforts to persuade Tehran to curb its nuclear programme. http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/1106/breaking17.htm === Thousands flee DR Congo clashes: Thousands of civilians have fled fighting in eastern Congo as a week-old fragile ceasefire continues to come under strain. Civilians escaping clashes on Wednesday said the attacks had been started by pro-government Mai-Mai militiamen. http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2008/11/2008116649192318.html === The GM genocide: Thousands of Indian farmers are committing suicide after using genetically modified crops http://tinyurl.com/5eljx2 === Venezuela takes over gold mine: Las Cristinas mine, which is rich with gold, diamonds, iron and other minerals, is currently operated by Canadian firm Crystallex International Corp. http://english.aljazeera.net/news/americas/2008/11/200811642137630552.html === Plan Colombia did not achieve goals: According to a United States Congressional report Plan Colombia, which has cost more than 4.5 billion euros, has not achieved its goal of halving the production of cocaine. Instead, between 2000 and 2006 production rose by 15 percent. http://tinyurl.com/6zacj2 === Latin America awaits Obama action: Mr Obama has spoken in support of the current Plan Colombia and the US$400m Plan Merida for combating drugs trafficking in Mexico and Central America http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/us_elections_2008/7710855.stm === Galloway invites Black Panthers to Parliament after Obama victory: TWO former Black Panther members from the US appear at a public meeting at the Houses of Parliament tonight (Wednesday) with MP George Galloway. http://tinyurl.com/6avrl4 === 'Palin didn't know Africa was a continent': McCain aides begin Republican mud-slinging in wake of defeat: New slurs against John McCain's former running mate emerged this week as the tattered Republican party nosedived into civil war and the divide between McCain and Palin was further exposed. http://tinyurl.com/5uw7fa === Hawaii : Voters OK pot measure: Voters passed a ballot measure that would direct police to take a hands-off approach to the adult personal use of marijuana. http://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/articles/2008/11/05/local_news/local03.txt === Plan Merida Initiative: Update on Spending Plan: The Merida Initiative will serve as a catalyst for a new era of joint U.S.-Mexico law enforcement action. http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2008/oct/111035.htm === UK: Government black boxes will 'collect every email': Internet "black boxes" will be used to collect every email and web visit in the UK under the Government's plans for a giant "big brother" database, The Independent has learnt. http://tinyurl.com/6q8dfv === UK: Copy of Orwell's "Nineteen Eighty Four" Sent To Every MP - The books will be inscribed with the words, 'This book was a warning, not a blueprint', and will arrive at Parliament on or before November 5th -- a date of well known historical significance for that building. http://thejournal.parker-joseph.co.uk/blog/_archives/2008/11/4/3962135.html ==== In case you missed it: George Orwell - 1984 - The Movie - Video Runtime 108 Minutes http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article15531.htm === IMF bails out Ukraine: The IMF has already agreed to lend Iceland $2.1bn and is in talks with Hungary for an estimated $10bn to $12.5bn in loans. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/imf-bails-out-ukraine-996470.html === IMF now sees global recession in 2009: The advanced industrial economies will contract as a group for the first time since World War II, the IMF said. Negative growth is expected in the all major economies except Canada. http://tinyurl.com/5qt3gk === European Banks Cut Rates Sharply: The Bank of England unexpectedly reduced its benchmark rate by 1.5 percentage points, its biggest rate reduction in more than a decade, and the European Central Bank lowered its interest rate as expected by half a percentage point to 3.25 percent. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/07/business/07euro.html?ref=worldbusiness === 30 US states in recession, 19 at risk: Moody's: Thirty US states were mired in recession in September, and 19 others are at risk of falling into recession in the coming months, a survey by ratings agency Moody's Investors Service said Tuesday. http://rawstory.com/news/afp/30_US_states_in_recession_19_at_ris_11042008.html === U.S. to Sell $55 Billion in Long-Term Debt Next Week: The U.S. Treasury said it plans to sell $55 billion in long-term government debt this quarter and bring back auctions of three-year notes, as a slowing economy balloons the budget deficit to a record level. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=auBekqjfjO8Q ==== Retailers report steep sales declines in October: The nation's retailers saw their sales plummet last month to the weakest October level since at least 1969, as the financial crisis and mounting layoffs left shoppers too scared to shop. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081106/retail_sales.html === Jobless claims higher than expected: Number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance reaches 481,000, those continuing to receive benefits at 25-year high. http://tinyurl.com/6e9xu8 === Toyota Feeling 8-Year Low As Profits Plunge: Toyota's long expansionary streak has come to an end. The Japanese carmaker on Thursday slashed its annual net profit forecast by 68%, warning that the figure would drop to a eight-year low. http://tinyurl.com/65lhrn ==== GM Executive: Next 100 Days Critical For GM, US Auto Industry: Troy Clarke, president of GM North America, urged auto industry executives to make the case to Washington leaders that the failure of auto companies would have devastating effects on the economy. http://tinyurl.com/6ashv7 === \ \ \ Rubin won't return to Treasury, boosting Summers' chances Submitted by cpowell on 12:35PM ET Thursday, November 6, 2008. Section: Daily Dispatches Rubin Removes Himself for Consideration at Treasury By Michael McKee Bloomberg News Thursday, November 6, 2008 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.T1Wv5QZHRU&refer=h... NEW YORK -- Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said he won't be joining the administration of President- elect Barack Obama, narrowing the field of potential candidates to become the next government's top economic official. Obama is "terrific," Rubin said today in an interview in New York. "But I've spoken with him and told him I'm not interested in going back into government." Rubin, who served at the Treasury's helm from 1995 to 1999 under President Bill Clinton, has been mentioned as a possibility for several jobs in Obama's cabinet, including his former position. Rubin's decision boosts the chances for former Treasury chief Lawrence Summers and New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy Geithner. Rubin, 70, advised Obama on economic issues during the presidential campaign. He said today that he told Obama he would consider taking on special projects. The outgoing Treasury secretary, Henry Paulson, pledged in a statement today to ensure a "smooth and effective" changeover to Obama's team. President George W. Bush's administration ends on Jan. 20. Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, another Obama adviser who may be in contention to succeed Paulson, also has experience in leading special initiatives. ... Special Project Role Volcker, who left the Fed in 1987, headed panels that investigated money lost by Holocaust victims, the oil-for-food program that the United Nations ran in Iraq, and corruption in World Bank loans. The Treasury post will be an especially important Cabinet position in the Obama administration, with financial markets only starting to stabilize after the turmoil of recent months and the economy heading into what may be the deepest recession in decades. Democrats in Congress also intend to push an overhaul of the financial industry next year, an operation for which Obama will likely need a seasoned leader at the Treasury, or any special post that oversaw the effort. Volcker said in September that the financial system was "broken" and "dysfunctional" after the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market caused the worst credit crisis in decades. Obama is expected to move quickly in choosing an economic team. ... Summers' Odds Summers, who succeeded Rubin and is now a professor at Harvard University, is favored to return to the post, people close to the president-elect have said. Summers, 53, was also an adviser to Obama during the campaign, and helped design the candidate's economic program. He would bring experience and familiarity with markets and global leaders, helping to ensure a smooth transition. Geithner, 47, is also a veteran of the U.S. Treasury. As assistant secretary for international affairs, he negotiated with Asian governments during the financial crisis of 1997 and 1998. He worked closely this year with Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke in the central bank's rescues of Bear Stearns Cos. and American International Group Inc. New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, like Rubin and current Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson a former head of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., yesterday said he wouldn't rule out accepting the Treasury post, while predicting he wouldn't get it. Corzine said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday that the next Treasury chief's top jobs will be getting a fiscal stimulus enacted and deploying part of a $700 billion financial-rescue package to help homeowners. "The next secretary is going to have to be a crisis manager and plan for the future," said Rubin, who has worked at Citigroup Inc. since leaving the Treasury and is now a senior counselor at the New York-based lender. "He'll have to operate on two fronts at the same time." \ \ \ Credit swap inventory was grossly incomplete Submitted by cpowell on 01:17PM ET Thursday, November 6, 2008. Section: Daily Dispatches Credit Swap Disclosure Obscures True Financial Risk By Shannon D. Harrington and Abigail Moses Bloomberg News Thursday, November 6, 2008 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a0CcmxJQnS7A&refer=h... NEW YORK -- The most comprehensive report on unregulated credit-default swaps didn't disclose bets in the section of the more than $47 trillion market that helped destroy American International Group Inc., once the world's biggest insurer. A report by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corp. doesn't include privately negotiated credit-default swaps that insurers such as AIG, MBIA Inc., and Ambac Financial Group Inc. sold to guarantee securities known as collateralized debt obligations. It includes only a "small fraction" of contracts linked to mortgage securities, according to Andrea Cicione at BNP Paribas SA in London. New York-based DTCC's data, released on its Web site Nov. 4, showed a total $33.6 trillion of transactions on governments, companies and asset-backed securities worldwide, based on gross numbers. While designed to ease concerns about the amount of risk banks and investors amassed on borrowers from companies to homeowners, the report may have missed as much as 40 percent of the trades outstanding in the market, Cicione said. The data are "likely to underestimate the amount of net CDS exposure," Cicione, who correctly forecast in January that the cost of protecting European companies from default would rise, said in an interview. "A broadening of the coverage to the entire market is what investors really need." ... 'Increased Transparency' DTCC released the data as dealers and investors in the market seek to counter criticism that the market has amplified the financial crisis. The Nov. 4 report showed, for example, that $15.4 trillion of contracts linked to individual companies, governments and other borrowers were created. After canceling out contracts that offset one another, though, sellers of that protection would have to pay $1.76 trillion if all underlying borrowers defaulted and debt holders recovered nothing. The data is "definitely a welcome development," Cicione said. Trading of credit derivatives soared 100-fold the past decade as banks, hedge funds, insurance companies and other investors used the contracts to protect against losses or speculate on debt they didn't own. The growth was driven partly by CDOs, securities that parcel bonds, loans and credit-default swaps, slicing them into varying layers of risk. Banks worldwide have taken $693 billion in writedowns and losses on loans, CDOs and other investments since the start of 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. ... CDX Indexes Investors hedging against losses on CDOs helped push the cost of default protection to a record last week. The benchmark Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, linked to the bonds of 125 companies in the U.S. and Canada, reached 240 basis points on Oct. 27. The index rose 5 basis points to 192 basis points as of 8:48 a.m. in New York, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group. The Markit iTraxx Europe rose to as high as 195 basis points from as low as 20 in June 2007. It was quoted at 139.5 basis points today, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. A basis point on a credit-default swap protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years costs $1,000 a year. Credit-default swaps, contracts conceived to protect bondholders against default, pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a company fail to adhere to its debt agreements. An increase indicates deterioration in the perception of credit quality; a decline signals the opposite. ... $440 Billion AIG first disclosed to investors in August 2007 that it held more than $440 billion of credit-swap trades linked to CDOs. The New York-based company was brought to the edge of bankruptcy in September after the value of the transactions plunged. The insurer was forced to come up with more than $10 billion in collateral to back the contracts after its debt rankings were cut. It accepted an $85 billion government loan in exchange for ceding control to the U.S. MBIA and Ambac, previously the world's two biggest bond insurers, lost their top AAA ratings earlier this year because of potential losses on credit swaps sold to guarantee CDOs backed by home loans. Moody's Investors Service cut New York-based Ambac's bond insurance rating four levels yesterday to Baa1, three steps above junk, because of potential losses on the derivatives. A market survey this year by the New York-based International Swaps and Derivatives Association, which includes credit swaps on CDOs and other contracts that may not be captured by DTCC's Trade Information Warehouse, estimates more than $47 trillion in gross contracts are outstanding. ... 'Gaps' The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which urged dealers to curb risks and improve transparency in the credit swaps market over the past three years, said regulators will continue to push for more disclosure. Among the information the Fed wants to see are prices at which the derivatives trade, according to a New York Fed spokesman. "There appear to be gaps," said Henry Hu, a law professor at the University of Texas in Austin who has pressed for the creation of a data warehouse encompassing all privately negotiated derivative trades to offer a better understanding of their risks. "Hopefully, regulators are getting more information," he said. Because the DTCC registry captures only commonly traded contracts that can be confirmed over electronic systems, not every swap trade is in the company's report, spokeswoman Judy Inosanto said. Among those not included are credit-default swaps on CDOs, she said. MBIA, the Armonk, New York-based insurer crippled by ratings downgrades earlier this year following losses from such contracts, has said it sold $126.3 billion in guarantees on slices of CDOs backed by corporate bonds, mortgages and other debt. Ambac sold $60.7 billion in guarantees on these so-called tranches, mostly through credit swaps, the company said. ... CDO Losses Insurers including AIG, MBIA, and Ambac typically sold protection on the highest-ranking slices of such deals, meaning they'd be required to make good on payments only after a substantial part of the underlying debt defaults. The failures of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Washington Mutual Inc., and three Icelandic banks that were widely held in CDOs linked to corporate debt caused no losses on tranches MBIA guaranteed, Mitchell Sonkin, the company's head of insured portfolio management, said in a conference call yesterday. New York-based Lehman and WaMu, based in Seattle, filed for bankruptcy. Iceland's government took over its three biggest lenders last month after they were unable to raise short-term funding, triggering pay-outs on credit-default swaps. Some investors holding the riskier slices of CDOs that weren't guaranteed lost more than 90 percent because of the bank failures. "The worry is that these bespoke tranches are being eaten away, and who knows if and when these losses will get realized?," Tim Backshall, chief strategist at Credit Derivatives Research LLC in Walnut Creek, California, wrote in a note to clients yesterday. \ \ \
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Duncan	07-Nov-08, 05:18 AM (GMT)
8. "physical gold"
http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/MAAG.pdf \ \ \ http://www.signalwatch.com/markets/markets-dow.asp \ \ \
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Duncan	07-Nov-08, 05:30 AM (GMT)
9. "DJIA - Boiled Missionary For Breakfast"
The Brits, like missionary zealots out to save the world, dropped their interest rate an astonishing 150 basis points in the early morning hours. The cannibals swept in and ate them, and their good works, for breakfast. Actually, the meal lasted from the open to the close of trading, with two feeble, though futile, attempts to get out of the pot, beginning at the 1400 HR magic moment. We expected the pull back, and we got it. BB-297. Volume was rising, and today exceeded the 1-year average for each index. BB-298. I placed the blue arrows on chart BB-299 on 10/30 to indicate the shape of the expected return move-a sharp pull back, possibly as far as back to the neckline of the steeply slanted H&S Bottom formation. I couldn't predict the day to expect it, so the bottom was shown at least 3 days early. I don't expect the index to make a full recovery to the support, and continue on that support line. Rather, I see it as likely the index will continue below for a while, but rise and cross at a slightly steeper positive slope. Yes, I believe that the pull back here has run its course. BB-299. Notice that my Tsunami Indicator continues to ring, and so far, with continued decreasing amplitude. (I noticed today that Erin has added "amplitude" to her lexicon.) If I'm correct about a reversal to the upside tomorrow, the current negative peak amplitude should be near flat, or even reversed to the upside. BB-300. - Charlie Miller, MIT Retired 2008-11-06
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Duncan	07-Nov-08, 05:43 AM (GMT)
10. "this is an epic bear market"
7 november 2008 What will happen and why Next year, in the summer, strange things will start to happen. Some confusion will appear in the way benchmark interest rates are quoted and disputes will openly surface between respected sources as to what is being referred to as the key indicator rate; this will be framed as more a 'lease rate' of bank capital under regulated management, and not the interest rate on interbank money borrowed. And that is because someone will know that this capital is meant to drop in value, in other words be discounted. As said recently by Mannfmm this is an epic bear market. The market will neither stabilise nor appear to stabilise, experiencing continued large swings in both ways - but the overall trend will be markedly down. No stable move up can occur until reported earnings underpin P/E's for more than one quarter BEYOND at least one and more likely two or three quarters after the December quarter. That is only an obvious thing, not an insider's knowledge. The UK interest rate action is tied to a desire not to drag the money flows from extremely low US interest deposits towards a higher UK deposit environment. The principle motivation of central banks is not the health of the stockmarket, but the preservation of the currency. And this is where things are getting interesting. The currency system has been destabilised by the financial assets ratio to Money Supply via the equitisation of a previously 'not financialised' asset - real estate. The bubble value of real estate is so large that it is in fact incalculably large and bears no resemblance to the amount of money issued. THIS and the reason for it - the lack of bank reserves to debt through errosion of these bank rules - has produced the so-called credit crisis which has been 'solved' by GIVING private banks capital from the public government's Treasury... There is a hidden meaning to this mechanism; it ADDS to the numerical currency issuance, and moves towards the incalculable size of the financial asset figure. If, as is expected by central banks, the underlying real estate retreats substantially in value - say by about 40% - the amount of money on issue reaches more reasonably towards the financial assets number and therein, a complete freeze in financial circulations is avoided. And some stage in that process it is FULLY EXPECTED that the government securities donated to banks will be heavily discounted AND THIS IS THE ONLY PROCESS WHEREBY THE MARKET CAN DERIVE MARKET CREDIT SOURCES TO ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE THE BENCHMARK INDICATOR RATE THAT LEADS MARKET LENDING AND ANOTHER PHASE OF GROWTH. The injection by say, the Saudi Government, of huge direct cash and capital, IS NOT GROWTH - it is either theft, or bribery or extortion or at best misdirection and seduction and diversion of somebody else's growth. But it is in no way 'economic growth' of the US or the UK economy. Buying bank equity is not in itself a means of supplying new circulating credit lines to the general market - it only becomes that if the new equity is discounted to the next holder. Circulation can only occur when there is an expectation of a low risk profit in the creation of a credit - otherwise, the holder of the capital will simply not lend (interbank freeze). There is no expectation of a low risk profit when interest rates are too low combined with the clear knowledge that assets are in a bubble condition. Even when assets are no longer in an obvious bubble position, the low interest provides inadequate reward and money still does not circulate in ways that permit government to draw tax and re-finance the substance of its currency. There is no reason for 'banks' to lend to companies. Exxon can lend to companies via circulated transferable private credit notes and maintain the entire US economy on a growth path single-handed if it wished and if companies represented a rational economic risk - but since they mostly don't, the idea of 'lending to companies' is a political pursuit by government seeking to maintain the monopoly on credit-based dollarisation. Hyperstagflation - a fact of modern life already in existence, and a word either coined by Mannfm or Bulldog or Ras - cannot be obviously seen because of the gap between Joe the Plumber's lifestyle and Suzanne Klatten's lifestyle. With interest rates at zero, Joe the Plumber can as little afford the real estate that Suzanne Klatten resides in as he could have when he thought property always went up and when GE Money lent him money he never intended to pay back other than by borrowing more on his never-ending equity rises. If you can sell products to Suzanne Klatten, you will most certainly comprehend that her companies' increased revenues in China even today are not a reason to cut your prices to her because Fox told you there was a 'severe credit crisis...' If you can sell products to Fox, you will not be confused by the massive increase in media spend for the Presidential election - what are they referring to when they say 'recession?' Certainly not political advertising budgets that's for sure! Thus the epic bear market must go on for Joe the Plumber. For only the Treasury may print actual money and it is unwilling at this point to let the market determine the price thereof - until of course it falls from its throne as the official financial mediator of, what is it - the ideals and principles of Democracy, and Liberty... ...and Hope. The Pope just now referred to Peace, and the Grand Mufti of Bosnia said Peace and Justice... They are all correct, because Joe the Plumber lives on illusion and cannot handle Truth, Substance and Delivery. Today, Truth, Substance and Delivery comes through a slim handheld Samsung device. A plastic credit card is in all events, a most passe piece of style. Hope is debt to the now, and Delivery is money freehold and substance now. You are cheating yourself if you trade money for hope. You can discount Hope today for some delivered cash, but you will not discount Delivery today for Hope. Suzanne Klatten wants delivery today. Joe the Plumber is drunk and can afford to wait until tomorrow. Voltaire said that Democracy propagates the idiocy of the masses. Money can be used by idiots, but it is seldom saved by them and never stored anywhere near them. Only a lunatic believes money is cheap to borrow. If it is cheap to borrow, it is not really money and cannot produce delivery of anything valuable. Lunatics and idiots however, believe things to be valuable, that are not, and that is what makes cleverer people money. It is not possible to create a permanently low interest rate environment without risking someone come along and push you off the hill using substance he purchased cheaply whether you have installed clever regulations and laws to prevent it or not! Clever people are more inventive than that. The dispute among serious economists today is about whether deflation runs right across all asset classes and whether or not there is any single thing at all that holds permanent trade value at non price deflationary numbers. It does not. Run across all asset classes. Moreover, if you knew today what will go up fifty times in the next two years, you will have something to value and to manage as capital, rather than hope about. I wonder whether you all think the USA is going to invest in Germany or Israel, or China - or somewhere else given the new President? What do you think? I think somewhere else. And yes, there most certainly is an Illuminati Elite. It casts its plans well into the future, and it is patient and organised and powerful. It thrives on poverty and crime rate. Wherever you see poverty and crime rate, read profit. Of course I remember someone rubbishing me about this before... ...before you elected an African. The day you see Samsung promote a digital device as thin as a credit card, know that the defining moment has arrived. There is no money, like new money. All Treasurers have Judas as a patron. Jesus, on the other hand, was a teknoi. Which is not a carpenter by the way. Calvin J. Bear Posted by kevin at 11/07/2008 09:12:00 AM Labels: Calvin Bear, credit, private money \ \ \
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